In light of the current economic climate, including tariffs and growing price sensitivity among consumers, promotions are more essential than ever. As prices for fresh produce are projected to climb in the coming month, Numerator Promo Intel is actively tracking pricing trends with our new monthly Promoted Pricing Index report.

This report focuses on month-over-month and year-over-year price fluctuations for key fresh produce, meat, and dairy items. It also pinpoints the retailers who offered the most competitive promotional price baskets this month.

Be sure to check out next month's report, including additional center store grocery and non-food items.
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In April, the average promotional prices saw an uptick across major food categories. Compared to March, prices rose for produce (+3.5%), dairy & meat (+1%), and center store products (+1%). Notably, nectarines and peaches experienced the largest promotional price increases at +82% and +71%, respectively. On the other hand, Easter-driven demand saw a significant promotional price drop in eggs (-8%).

Among retailers, Food City Supermarkets continued to offer the lowest promoted price baskets, while Greers Cash Saver registered the highest average promotional prices.

The May report highlights broad pricing activity across fresh, dairy, and center store categories. Apples (+14.1%) and clementines (+10.9%) led fruit price increases, while blueberries dipped (–3.5%). In the center store, items like pasta sauce (+18%) and potato chips (+8%) saw notable increases, while grain bars (–10%) and ready-to-eat cereal (–24%) declined.

Packaged hot dogs rose +4% month-over-month and +21% year-over-year, continuing a steady climb ahead of grilling season.

Retailer promotional pricing continued to vary widely. Food Maxx, H.E.B., and Aldi offered some of the lowest promoted price baskets, while chains like Publix and Greers Cash Saver ranked among the highest, reflecting over a 4x difference in promotional value.

The June report highlights broad pricing activity across fresh, dairy, and center store categories. Tropical fruit prices spiked, led by limes (+124%), lemons (+57%), and kiwis (+123%), while peaches (–10%) and nectarines (–16%) fell. Corn (+150%) and celery (+17%) also surged among vegetables.

In meat and dairy, packaged hot dogs rose +11% month-over-month and +24% year-over-year. Ribeye steak (+11%) and lean ground beef (+5%) climbed, while eggs (–6%) and milk (–2%) declined.

Center store categories showed sharp increases for grain bars (+36%), pasta sauce (+20%), and toothpaste (+66%), with notable drops in toaster pastries (–9%) and potato chips (–7%).

Retailer basket values varied widely. Grocery Outlet, Food Maxx, and Maxx Value offered the lowest promoted prices, while ShopRite, Publix, and Giant Eagle were among the highest, reflecting over a 4x difference in promotional value.

Promotional pricing in July revealed mixed movement across fresh, dairy, and center store categories. Fresh produce saw a steep drop in lime prices (–66%) after June’s spike, while cherries (–16%), kiwi (–44%), and pears (–12%) also declined. Clementines rose (+12%), as did navel oranges (+26%) and grapes (+8%).

In fresh vegetables, lettuce (+22%) and mushrooms (+14%) led gains, while corn (–60%) and celery (–13%) dropped notably.

In the meat case, pork chops surged +37% month-over-month, with ground beef also climbing sharply (80–89% lean: +9%, 90–99% lean: +2%). Ribeye (+18% YoY), T-bone (+14% YoY), and sirloin steak (+16% YoY) remained elevated. Packaged hot dogs dropped sharply (–22% MoM), while eggs saw a +18% spike from June.

Center store prices shifted downward in some key areas. Pasta sauce (–30%) and grain bars (–20%) dropped significantly, while toaster pastries (+17%) and cold tablets (+17%) spiked. Hair and personal care items remained elevated YoY—shampoo and conditioner both up ~30%.

Retailer pricing indices showed strong variation. El Rancho, Food City Supermarkets, and La Bonita had the lowest promoted baskets. At the high end, chains like Gristedes, D’Agostino Supermarkets, and New Seasons Market indexed more than 2x above the lowest value.

August saw varied promotional pricing trends across fresh, dairy, and center store categories. Produce price shifts were mixed: kiwi (+42%), mangoes (+22%), and navel oranges (+21%) rose, while lemons (–19%) and cherries (+14% MoM but still down YoY) moved in opposite directions. Vegetable standouts included artichokes (+14%), asparagus (+9%), and squash (+9%), while cucumbers (–12%) and onions (–7%) declined.

In the meat case, bacon saw a +9% increase month-over-month, while bone-in pork chops dropped –20%. Packaged hot dogs rebounded +4% after July’s sharp drop. Ribeye and ground beef prices remained elevated YoY (+26%). Eggs fell –8% from July but remained up YoY (+1%).

Center store pricing featured sharp shifts: frozen vegetables jumped +20%, while allergy medications surged +77% MoM. Grain bars rose +17%, and cereal was up +5%. Downward trends included yogurt-Greek (–6%), cold liquids (–14%), and bar soap (–19%).

Retailer promotional baskets again varied widely. Food King Cost Plus, La Bonita, and Food City Supermarkets offered the lowest promoted prices, while Gristedes, D’Agostino Supermarkets, and New Seasons Market were at the high end of the spectrum, reflecting a more than 2.5x spread in index values

Last updated: 08/28/2025